Is 2025 Russell's year to shine?

Judging by pre-season testing in Bahrain, George Russell must sense his destiny within his reach. The jury is out on whether the Mercedes W16 is good enough to fight for the title, but so far it has at least demonstrated encouraging pace and poise on-track. Lewis Hamilton is gone – not into retirement, as Russell would once have anticipated, but to Ferrari – clearing the way for a new spearhead of what remains, for all its recent troubles, an F1 powerhouse. However, the situation is a little more complicated for Russell. The 27-year-old heads into what should be his peak years, in the sweet spot where he has racked up six seasons of experience before the risk that the relentless grind takes its toll and wears him down, ready to be the main man at Mercedes. Last season was his most impressive in F1, with victories in Austria and Las Vegas – on top of a superbly-executed on-the-road win at Spa that was lost to being underweight. Yet for all that, Russell is at a crossroads that makes 2025 potentially career-defining. Russell is out of contract at the end of the year, as Red Bull team principal Christian Horner likes to point out, and although you would expect him to be the Mercedes lynchpin for years to come, that future is not certain. Team principal Toto Wolff’s long-term pursuit of Verstappen is one concern, and it’s not as fanciful a chase as you might suspect. Verstappen’s contract runs to the end of 2028, but there are ways out and he might be tempted to break away if this year doesn’t go well for Red Bull or the 2026 engine looks unconvincing. Mercedes isn’t Verstappen’s only possible destination, as a link-up with Adrian Newey and Honda at Aston Martin has been widely touted, while taking time out of F1 isn’t entirely out of the question. For now, Verstappen is an ethereal problem for Russell; the more tangible one is new teammate Kimi Antonelli. The 18-year-old rookie is regarded by many at Mercedes, most influentially Wolff, as its answer to Verstappen. That’s why he’s been fast-tracked into a race seat after one patchy Formula 2 season driving for struggling Prema. Wolff claims he decided Antonelli was the man to replace Hamilton “five minutes after” learning the seven-times world champion was off, such is the confidence in his talent. As for Antonelli, despite only recently passing his road driving test, he looked comfortable throughout pre-season running. That’s helped by an intensive old-car testing program, logging thousands of miles in preparation for the step up, albeit in old machinery using the Pirelli Academy ‘demo’ tires. In Bahrain, there were moments when he overdid it, which is inevitable given the steep learning curve, but he put together a race stint on the final day that was similar to that produced by Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc. The Italian downplays the idea he’s there to fill Hamilton’s shoes, saying “I don’t find it right to say that I’m his replacement”, and he’s right to attempt to pour cold water on the idea despite in prosaic terms being exactly that. Mercedes regards him as a driver who can win multiple world championships, piling on the pressure for a Hamilton-in-2007 style rookie year. The desire to live up to that billing perhaps contributed to the shunt on his second flying lap when he made his FP1 debut at Monza last year. A second appearance in Mexico later that season was more subdued, suggesting an important lesson had been learned not only for Antonelli himself, but also those backing him. If the car is up to it, he’s sure to bag some eyecatching results. Forty or 50 years ago, Antonelli would be the apprentice to Russell’s master. However, in modern F1 young drivers are so well-prepared that there’s no longer time for a stint in the shadow of an established star before the baton is passed over. Today, future world champions are expected to grab it rather than waiting, and that’s what Antonelli has in mind. That’s the nightmare scenario for Russell. Yet it’s just as likely, perhaps more so, that Russell will make it harder for Antonelli to make the impact he wants. Over the past three seasons, Russell’s reputation has been enhanced by how he’s fared against Hamilton. In their first two years together, they were close in qualifying, but in 2024 Russell was comfortably the stronger of the Mercedes drivers. On average in dry conditions, where a fair comparison could be made, he was 0.215% quicker than Hamilton. That equates to 0.170s around an average track, which in modern F1 is a decisive margin. Combined with a step up relative to 2023 in terms of reducing errors, it made for an impressive campaign for Russell. Speaking at the end of last year on the subject of his outstanding qualifying form, he argued that reflects the level he has reached mentally. “I just felt really confident in the car, confident in myself,” said Russell. “Psychologically, I’m in a really good place, especially when it comes to these high-pressure scenarios, to get the most out of myself. I’m not going to compare against my teammate, but in terms of my own performance I feel I’m driving better than ever. “Every driver is capable of doing great laps and great performances, but when the pressure’s up and it comes down to that one lap in Q3, that’s where it comes down to your headspace. I’ve learned a lot about myself and how to get the most out of myself. I know what works for me.” The mental side of a driver’s game makes the difference between being a world champion capable of winning a double-digit number of grands prix and one who only shows flashes of genius. Russell is teetering on the brink of establishing himself as being of title-winning caliber, and also showed his determination not to be a pushover last year by drawing a firm line in the sand for F1’s current top dog, Max Verstappen. After winning the Qatar Grand Prix, Verstappen criticized Russell for pushing stewards to penalize him for driving unnecessarily slowly during qualifying, saying “I’ve never seen someone trying to screw someone over that hard” and “I lost all respect”. A few days later, in Abu Dhabi, Russell gave his response by launching a volley of broadsides at Verstappen, who he said had “bullied” drivers, “cannot deal with adversity” and that “he’s taken it too far”. And Russell laid out his critique of Verstappen at great length, repeating it during his open media session later that day after initially laying down the law with a small group of journalists that RACER was part of. Russell certainly felt Verstappen had overstepped by criticizing him in Qatar without giving any right of reply, but there was more to it than that. It was a measured, calculated, pointed warning that Russell won’t back down and cede to Verstappen. In short, his message was ‘don’t mess with me’, a notion he hopes is in the back of Verstappen’s mind next time they cross swords on track. Now that Russell has talked the talk, there are plenty of signs that he can back it up. He is unquestionably fast and has produced many accomplished race drives. Indeed, that lost Spa win last year, after calling for a switch to a one-stop strategy, was the one he rated as his best of 2024. As a driver, he is capable of startling pace, in particular when the car gives him the through-corner balance he needs to carry the speed. There have been question marks about race pace, particularly in terms of his tire management compared to Hamilton, but this is an aspect of his game that has also improved. Russell may ‘only’ have three grand prix wins to his name, but he will win more given the chance. And closing out opportunities more frequently is the target he’s set himself and the team for this year, car allowing. “You can’t put a figure on your expectations, because the car could be quick enough to win every race or it could be quick enough to win no races, and you’ve got to adjust these expectations,” says Russell. “Last year, we missed a few opportunities. We led seven races and I only won two, and felt like we could’ve won more. So it’s just trying to maximize every single result no matter what position that may be.” Russell knows that doing this is the only thing that will ensure he’s not knocked off trajectory. Even if the machinery doesn’t let him prove that with results this year, he must perform at a high level to see off the challenges of Verstappen and Antonelli and shore up his place, and status, at Mercedes. And there’s no question Mercedes will want him to do that. If he does that then a new Mercedes deal should be assured, and a world championship victory looms ever larger on the horizon.