Max factors adding up for Russell, Mercedes

Only one driver has finished every competitive session in Formula 1 this season in the top five, and they are not driving a McLaren or a Red Bull. George Russell has delivered an extremely consistent start to 2025 so far, even if the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was his Mercedes team’s least competitive outing of the year to date. Matching his season’s-worst result of fifth place — also achieved in Japan where Russell was on the tail of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc for the majority of the race — Russell has slipped slightly further back in the early championship fight. But that’s no real surprise in a Mercedes car that appears to just lack that peak performance that would put him in position to fight for victories. Russell has threatened in qualifying but has only had one front-row start so far this year. Consistent performances while the highly rated Kimi Antonelli learns the ropes have been exactly what Mercedes needed from Russell so far this year, as he has seamlessly moved into a team leader role following the departure of Lewis Hamilton. And it’s not as if Russell was in Hamilton’s shadow prior to that, getting the better of his teammate in the qualifying head-to-head and matching him in other metrics across their three years together in what was often a temperamental and uncompetitive car. It all adds to up to the 27-year-old being the most in-demand driver who is currently out of contract in 2026. The only problem is, there’s another driver who could be out of contract if a performance release clause is triggered, and they are in even higher demand. Max Verstappen’s future has been the source of speculation for over a year now at an unstable Red Bull team, and comments from Helmut Marko ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix only served to further fuel the intrigue. There are no shortage of suitors if Verstappen becomes available, but the main two destinations that have been spoken about consistently are Aston Martin and Mercedes. Any mention of Ferrari only came as a result of a question in Jeddah asking him why he hadn’t been linked to the Scuderia at the same time. If you take the former, then it does feel like space would be made for Verstappen, despite contracted drivers at present. Whereas should it be a Mercedes seat, it’s both hard to envisage that pairing being alongside Russell, but also feels less likely that the British driver would have quite as many options if he were the one replaced. And it’s certainly not that far-fetched to think Russell could find himself on the market, despite the impressive performances he has been delivering. Williams team principal James Vowles might have voiced his opinion that Verstappen was not the right fit for Mercedes, but he also admitted the four-time world champion would bring additional performance — “I don’t think anyone in the room would deny that he is extraordinary in what he can do” — and that is always the most compelling argument. Mercedes was unable to offer Verstappen a quick pathway to F1 back in 2014, unlike Red Bull and Toro Rosso, and team boss Toto Wolff could well have felt a second chance to sign him might never come around. If that chance is now on the table amid the drop in competitiveness and general volatility at Red Bull, can he really afford to pass it up again? It is an extremely tough question to answer, and that in itself should be taken as a huge compliment by Russell. The dynamic within Mercedes certainly seems to be a positive one this year, and whenever the car has been capable of winning races over the past three years, Russell has been in the mix. Of the team’s four wins last year, he was fighting for victory before reliability issues stopped him in Silverstone; he crossed the line first before being disqualified for being marginally underweight in Belgium; and took victory in Austria and Las Vegas. Russell’s shown the stomach for a fight, too, courtesy of his extremely public falling out with Verstappen towards the end of last season. It was a situation that could have led Mercedes down a path of burning bridges, but ultimately did no more than make it tough to picture the pair alongside each other in the same team. If further car improvements don’t arrive this season, but the current impression that Mercedes will have the best power unit in 2026 proves correct, then it opens up the possibility for a true title challenge next year. And if it was a repeat of 2014 — where Mercedes faced no true challenge for three years — then Russell and Antonelli could prove to be the perfect combination. But McLaren has thrown a wrench in the works by beating Mercedes consistently with its own engine over the past two years, and its technical team under Andrea Stella certainly appears capable of providing stern opposition. The enormous dominance of more than a decade ago appears unlikely, and the tiniest gains could well prove crucial. So Russell is very much in the shop window right now. Primarily he needs to leave Mercedes with no doubt that he will win the team championships if given the car, and that it doesn’t need to go after Verstappen. He’s so far doing a good job of that, but if there’s a single weakness exposed, then the attraction of Verstappen will grow even greater than its already very high level. At the same time, while the 2018 Formula 2 champion deserves a front-running seat, sometimes circumstances go against you, as Carlos Sainz found out last year. So Russell and his team would be foolish to not have some feelers out to gauge interest from elsewhere, especially given how few seats are definitely available after last year’s reshuffling. It all adds up for a strange situation for Russell, who is doing absolutely nothing wrong in terms of his performances, and there would not exactly be many eyebrows raised if a new deal was suddenly announced after a short renegotiation period. But for as long as Verstappen remains potentially in play, then there is always likely to be a question mark over his seat almost regardless of what Russell does, and simply handling the pressure of that scenario could be an important factor in how his future plays out.